Maricel Spini Uruguay is set to vote in a run-off this Sunday to pick its next president. This is the most uncertain election the country has faced over the last 30 years, but despite the uniqueness of this scenario, it is not surprising.
The contest between Yamandú Orsi (Broad Front) and Álvaro Delgado (National Party and leader of the so-called Republican Coalition) will come down to the wire, according to the last surveys. And while some say that Orsi has a slight advantage, any difference is within the margin of error.
The parity between the two candidates reflects the country’s polarization. However, this divisiveness has not spilled into everyday life like in Argentina. All attempts to replicate that scenario in Uruguay have fallen flat.
The tight margins are also a signal of political continuity. All consulting and polling firms have been relaying the same message since the party primaries: the electorate’s main demand is that the country stay on the same course, regardless of who wins.
The team of Andrés Ojeda, the presidential candidate who came in third in the first round, viewed this scenario as a potential opportunity.
“Some of the proposals were indistinguishable. If you didn’t know who had said them, you could easily think that some made by the National Party were actually uttered by the Broad Front, and vice versa,” one of his campaign strategists said. Because of this, they reasoned that there was a chance that a disruptive message like Ojeda’s could land him in the run-off. Their bid was ultimately unsuccessful.
Another feature of the most uncertain run-off of the 21st century is the high level of indecision. Some polls show that it can be as high as 8%. Studies show that the vast majority of these people, a little over 218,000 according to voting records, decide their vote in the two days before the election.
In the first round—with 11 candidates in the running—polls showed that voters had begun making up their minds earlier. By the time the October 27 election came around, the scenario was much clearer.
The fact that the number of undecided voters has remained so high in the four weeks since the first round is noteworthy. Orsi and Delgado have focused their campaign efforts on them, but they have had little luck so far.
Another unavoidable issue is the general political apathy. In addition to the extreme parity, the current electoral cycle notched another historical fact: the party primaries saw the lowest voter turnout since the return of democracy (36%).
Many observers have attributed the lack of enthusiasm to the length of the electoral process in Uruguay: it has been eight months since the beginning of the primary campaign. And it’s not over yet: in May 2025, there will be elections for departmental authorities.
This distance between the world of politics and the citizenry, far from being normalized, will have to be addressed by whoever wins the election. They will have five years to try and rebuild enthusiasm.
