Peru will hold its presidential election runoff on Sunday between right-wing Keiko Fujimori and left-wing Roberto Sánchez Palomino.

The election remains open-ended, as voter intention is locked in a technical draw. Those who have not yet made a decision will be key to define who will be Peru’s next president.

According to a private poll issued by consultant agency Ipsos, Sánchez leads slightly with 43.8% support over Fujimori’s 43.2%. Thirteen percent of voters remain undecided. The poll was only sent to Ipsos clients, as electoral surveys cannot be published in the week leading up to elections in Peru.

While the odds seemed to be on Fujimori’s side when the results were announced after an unprecedented delay of over a month in the vote count, this may not necessarily be the case on Sunday.

Fujimori won the first round with 17.2% of the vote, while Sánchez Palomino clinched second place with 12% after a weeks-long, neck-and-neck dispute with far-right Rafael López Aliaga (11.9%), who denounced there had been electoral fraud.

“The logistical problems that marked the first round, together with unfounded allegations of fraud and subsequent legal challenges, delayed the official confirmation of the second-place finisher by more than a month, creating an uneven playing field between the two runoff candidates,” said Peruvian sociologist Francesca Emanuele, who will lead the election observation mission that will be carried out by Washington D.C.-based think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in a press release.

Political crisis

Sunday’s election comes amid a deep political crisis and fragmented society that has seen nine presidents in 10 years, due to frequent removal or resignations of leaders over scandals and corruption accusations.

In recent years, Congress’ political power grew significantly, meaning it became easier to remove presidents. Current leader José María Balcázar, who was previously a congressman, rose to the position because he was the head of the parliament and therefore the next in line after his predecessor, José Jerí was removed after only four months, in February.

Just like Balcázar, Jerí was head of the parliament at the time of his appointment, which came after both the elected president (Castillo) and the vice president (Dina Boluarte) were removed from office due to corruption and embezzlement accusations.

Sunday’s contests show two paths ahead. 

On the one hand, Sánchez Palomino states that he will carry on the same platform as former president Pedro Castillo (2021-2022), which included reforming the constitution to favor workers interests and nationalizing key industries. 

Fujimori, the daughter of late ex-president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) who is running for president for the fourth time, means a return to more right-wing social and economic policies, similar to the ones championed by her father.

Keiko Fujimori

Some of Fujimori’s proposals include increasing security to lower the homicide rate, assigning the armed forces to undertake prison management and border control, and allowing police to carry out searches under the promise to restore “order.”

Fujimori has been a stern defender of her father and his administration despite the serious human rights violations committed. These included forced sterilizations of Indigenous women, forced disappearances, and death squad killings. Her political party is the dominating one in Congress and has deep influence over key institutions, including the judiciary. 

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Sánchez Palomino’s campaign centered on defending ex-President Castillo’s freedom, who is complying with an 11-year prison sentence for attempting to shut down Congress — which is why he was removed. The candidate believes Castillo was unjustly imprisoned as part of the discrimination faced by rural and Indigenous Peruvians.

Sánchez Palomino was minister of foreign trade and tourism during Castillo’s government and is currently a congressman.

The left-wing contender has promised to replace the current constitution, enacted in 1992, which is seen as having enabled the mechanism frequently used by Congress to remove presidents, leading to the current political instability.

However, Sánchez Palomino has moderated several of his proposals just days ahead of the runoff after forming an alliance with other parties, with the goal of attracting the center vote.

While his initial proposals had a combative tone aimed at nationalizing strategic natural resources, banning benefits for foreign investors, and breaking with the current economic model, he has now proposed policies focused on economic development with a focus on the national industry, job creation, and progressive taxes.

On May 17, the same day it was confirmed Sánchez Palomino made it into the runoff, Peru’s public prosecutor’s office reactivated an investigation against him for alleged financial crimes, which the candidate has denied.