After months of negotiations, which began almost as soon as President Javier Milei took office, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will confirm a US$20 billion loan for Argentina today. 

The agreement will entail adjustments to economic policy, the details of which will be previewed and explained by President Javier Milei himself and Economy Minister Luis Caputo, in a meeting they have called this afternoon at the Casa Rosada.

The IMF is expected to announce the approval of the agreement after 6 p.m. A government press conference has not been ruled out.

The loan is expected to calm the markets, which remain unsettled amid the trade war triggered by U.S. tariffs. However, key questions include how the dollar could move and whether foreign exchange controls will be lifted, as well as how these could affect inflation.

The first disbursement of the loan is expected to be US$10 billion or more. Following the agreement with the IMF, the amounts of the loans that the economic team has been negotiating with multilateral organizations including the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank will be announced. These could exceed US$10 billion.

Will Argentina lift currency controls?

These disbursements would replenish Central Bank reserves, potentially allowing the government to accelerate the timeline for lifting various restrictions imposed by the foreign exchange controls. Official sources say companies have accumulated about US$6 billion in profits pending remittance abroad, and US$15 billion in loans between companies and for other areas.

In the corridors of the Casa Rosada, officials insist there will not be a significant correction to the official exchange rate. However, they won’t rule out eliminating the “blend dollar,” which has always been criticized by IMF technicians who reject multiple exchange rates. Likewise, the official dollar rate could be increased to avoid problems for exporters. Currently, exporters receive an exchange rate 5% higher than the official rate, because they bring in 20% of their foreign currency through the financial dollar, in a scheme known as the “blend dollar.”

The new scheme could also include a band system with a limited floating mechanism to address the IMF’s demand for greater flexibility in exchange rate management.

Another of the IMF’s requirements involves Central Bank reserve accumulation. Despite the substantial trade surplus, during the current administration the Central Bank has only been able to accumulate about US$5 billion (net reserves remain negative) because it had to meet external debt payments in a context where it lacked external financing that would have allowed it to roll over maturities.