Andrés Lerner 
The government has projected a 22.8% increase in export tax revenue in the 2026 budget. The agricultural sector does not believe that Javier Milei intends to raise export taxes, but they see this as a signal that rates will not be lowered again next year.
The increase could come from higher export volumes, international prices, or even exchange rate fluctuations. Far from accelerating sales, the rise in the dollar has actually stalled them, and exporters say they will wait for the outlook to clear.
President Javier Milei presented the 2026 budget proposal in a televised address on Monday. The plan includes a series of macroeconomic projections that economist Luis Secco described as “at the very least, overly optimistic.” Among those estimates is a 22.8% rise in export tax revenue.
The figure is striking because this year, Economy Minister Luis Caputo cut export duties on major products. “The takeaway is that they don’t plan to lower them,” sources from the farm and export sectors agreed.
The Sociedad Rural stressed that “from an agricultural standpoint, it would be good to have a clear tax reduction schedule so that producers can work with predictability.” They added that the higher projected revenue could stem from greater export volumes, higher international prices, or exchange rate shifts, but not from higher tax rates.
“We shouldn’t take the budget’s projections too seriously. The export tax line is there just to make the numbers add up. What the government has shown over the past two years is that export taxes are adjusted according to the political or economic needs of the moment,” said agricultural consultant Javier Preciado Patiño in an interview with this outlet.
The farm business is currently at a standstill, and volatility isn’t helping. Exporters were blunt: “Until the exchange rate stabilizes, there will be no sales,” they told the Herald’s sister title, Ámbito. Preciado Patiño noted that soybeans are currently priced at AR$435,000 (US$293), compared to nearly AR$320,000 in June — meaning producers have lost between 30% and 40% of their earnings in pesos by betting on a stable exchange rate.
As for export registrations, they only jumped the day after the elections, taking advantage of a lower exchange rate, as allowed by regulations. Expectations are that activity will start to pick up between September and October, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Sector estimates shared with this outlet suggest that between US$6 billion and US$8 billion from this harvest still remain to be settled. The speed at which those dollars come in will depend on expectations.
