Smiling, determined, downright somber. Posters, murals, signs, shirts, even action figures — Nicolás Maduro’s mustached face is ubiquitous in the blistering streets of Caracas, watching over Venezuelans voting in Sunday’s presidential election. However, despite the Chavista leader’s pictorial omnipresence, for the first time in 25 years, the left-wing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is at risk of losing power. The election’s aftermath, whatever its outcome, is also an enigma.

As some polls state that Sunday’s are the first elections that could oust Chavismo from power in 25 years, analysts doubt that Maduro, who is aiming for a third term, will hand over power as he spoke about a “blood bath” and a “civil war” if the opposition wins. The opposition has also failed to recognize Chavista electoral victories in 2013, 2017, and 2018.

The main opposition candidate is centrist Edmundo González Urrutia, a diplomat and political analyst who was the Venezuelan ambassador to Argentina under Hugo Chávez’s first presidency between 1998 and 2002. He joined the ranks of the opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD for its Spanish initials) and became its international representative from 2013 to 2015.

González Urrutia was not the MUD’s first choice. Right-wing politician and industrial engineer María Corina Machado won her party’s primaries in October 2023 and was set to be the presidential candidate. However, she was barred from participating by the Comptroller General of Venezuela, a decision upheld by the Supreme Court due to her alleged involvement in a plot to get the United States to impose economic sanctions on Venezuela and her support for a military invasion in the country.

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Machado named Corina Yoris to run in her stead, but Yoris was also barred.

Although she isn’t on the ballot, Machado is leading González Urrutia’s campaign, joining him in rallies and speaking to the media. Elon Musk even called to vote for her in a post on X.

A source close to the Venezuelan government said that this could play in Maduro’s favor as Machado is much more charismatic than González Urrutia, and doubted that votes would transfer directly from one to the other. 

“If Machado stands up in any corner, there will be 1,000 people in 5 minutes,” the source said. “Nobody would realize if Edmundo did the same.”

The source trusted that the fact that the PSUV is banded together could be detrimental to the opposition, which is divided into nine candidates, although surveys show that González Urrutia is the leading opposition candidate. Widespread apathy — particularly in the youth — could also favor the government, the source said. 

“I don’t give it much importance because I don’t have faith that good results will be obtained,” a 32-year-old Venezuelan living in Argentina, who did not try to register to vote, told the Herald. “Unfortunately, Venezuela’s National Electoral Commission is a very corrupt organization.”

‘Chaotic authoritarianism’

The opposition has denounced threats and legal barriers to carry out the campaign, in line with the democratic backsliding that has been a staple of Maduro’s administration. A series of reports presented between 2019 and 2022 by then-United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet denounced human rights violations in Venezuela, including the incarceration of opposition members, tortures, extrajudicial killings, and censorship, among others. 

Economic strife and political repression caused the largest recorded refugee crisis in the Americas, as it pushed eight million people to leave the country. Machado’s campaign emphasized the “reunion” between Venezuelans at home and abroad. According to the most recent official figures, over 220,000 Venezuelans live in Argentina. However, only 2,600 will vote, according to Charbel Najm, vice-president for the Southern Cone of the opposition Primero Justicia party.

“The Chavista consulate only opened the voter registration process for 10 days in Argentina and only admitted roughly 10 people a day,” Najm told the Herald. “Approximately 500 people were able to register to vote this year.”

Najm added said that the judiciary took over his party and put a Chavista candidate on the ticket. “Today, our party is kidnapped,” he said, adding that Primero Justicia called to vote on González Urrutia.

Historian and journalist Pablo Stefanoni defined the Chavista rule as a “chaotic authoritarianism.”

Venezuelans will also vote having left behind the worst part of its recent economic crisis, although the country’s ordeals are far from over. Between 2014 and 2020, the country’s GDP shrank by a whopping 75%. From 2016 to 2019, Venezuela’s inflation rate was 53,798,500%, according to its Central Bank. Basic goods were missing from supermarket shelves and the illegal market for government-distributed goods thrived.

The picture is quite different today: supermarket shelves are stocked, purchasing power has increased, and the International Monetary Fund forecast 4% GDP growth for 2024. Venezuelan economy stabilized after people started to use U.S. dollars for their everyday transactions and Maduro’s government lifted some foreign currency restrictions in January 2019. Today, prices in stores are displayed both in Bolívares and in U.S. dollars, although the latter appears as “Ref” (short for “reference”) as some laws forbidding the use of the greenback are still in force. “Thank God for dollarization,” the president said that year.

However, dollarization increased inequality as state salaries and pensions are still paid in Bolívares. “The minimum salary is less than 10 dollars and the basic goods basket is around 300 dollars,” Najm said.

The Chavista government faces deep international isolation as former allies question Venezuela’s democracy. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called on Maduro to respect Sunday’s result. Former Argentine President Alberto Fernández was going to be an auditor but announced on X on Wednesday that the Venezuelan government had withdrawn the invitation after supporting Lula’s claims. Meanwhile, Argentine President Javier Milei supported Machado.

Analysts seem to agree that only one thing could guarantee that the other party will recognize Sunday’s results — a landslide victory from either. With unreliable polls, both sides convinced that they will win, and a highly polarized electorate, nothing is set in stone. Even Maduro’s ever-present face could fade from every wall in Caracas.