Paraguayan voters head to the polls today to elect its next president, Congress representatives, governors, and local authorities. The elected representatives will serve a five-year term. 

Surveys show that the tight election will mainly be disputed between two candidates: the economist Santiago Peña Palacios of the incumbent conservative Colorado Party (PC), and the lawyer Efraín Alegre of the center-left National Concertation for a New Paraguay (CNNP). Both of them have already run for the presidency in the past. 

The Colorado Party has ruled Paraguay for the past seven decades, with an exception between 2008 and 2013, when leftist Fernando Lugo was in power. Lugo was removed from office in 2012. 

The Herald spoke to Magdalena Lopez, the coordinator of the Social Studies on Paraguay Research Group at the University of Buenos Aires. She believes that, although the traditional conservative party is at risk of losing power, it is not expected that more voters will turn out this year compared to 2018, when just under 61% of registered voters went to the polls. Voting is compulsory for all citizens over 18 years of age.

This election finds Paraguay facing a 7% unemployment rate and a 24.7% poverty rate. Additionally, Paraguay has the fourth lowest GDP per capita in South America behind Venezuela, Bolivia and Suriname, according to IMF data. 

Anti-corruption NGO Transparency International marked Paraguay as the second country with the highest corruption perception in South America in 2022, following Venezuela. The country’s recent political history has been marked by corruption scandals and conflict. 

In January, former President Horacio Cartes was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for his “involvement in systematic corruption that has undermined democratic institutions in Paraguay.” This is not the first accusation against him for corruption. In August last year, Cartes’ name was found in classified files found by the FBI in former U.S. President Donald Trump’s residency referring to him and other politicians as “significantly corrupt.” 

Additionally, in 2022 the local Congress found Cartes, who is currently the head of the Colorado Party, to be the “architect of the illicit trafficking of tobacco products in the region.” 

President Mario Abdo Benítez’s approval ratings are less than 20%. 

This context marks a complicated scenario for the party, which could put their power at stake. 

The presidential candidates 

Although there are 13 candidates running for presidency this year, López told the Herald that the only visible political campaigns are those belonging to the “Concertation,” the party that’s threatening the Colorado Party’s power. 

“They are discussing inclusive development, [policies around the hydroelectric dam] Itapú, and taxes,” she added. 

The Concertation coalition includes 23 parties and two movements united in opposition to the Colorado Party. Efraín Alegre, who is aiming to win the presidency for the third time (he lost in 2013 and 2018), won the coalition primary to represent them in this election. He’s a lawyer with experience in Congress —as a deputy and national senator— and he served as a Minister during the Lugo administration. In 2018, he gained 43% of the vote — around only 3% less than Abdo Benítez, who won the presidency.

Alegre’s economic agenda prioritizes judicial reform to ensure “legal certainty” for foreign investment.

“What we lack is legal security,” the presidential candidate told Bloomberg in a telephone interview. “If we can achieve an investment grade rating, we know we can make a very significant leap,” he added. 

A poll published recently by Atlas Intelligence showed Alegre with a short margin ahead of Colorado candidate Peña. 

Peña is an economist who served as Economy Minister between 2015 and 2017 and previously worked as a director of the Paraguayan Central Bank between 2012 and 2014. In 2017, he took part in the internal election of his party and was beaten by Abdo Benítez by a small margin. He took a second shot last year and got elected to lead the Colorados in the polls. 

Peña sparked controversy in February 2023 when he praised former dictator Alfredo Stroessner by saying in an interview with Folha do São Paulo that “he was responsible for over 50 years of stability in Paraguay.” 

In Congress, the Colorado Party holds a majority in the Lower House (with 42 of the 80 seats) and more than a third of the seats in the Senate (17 of 45). Their power in the Lower House permitted them to vote against impeaching Abdo Benítez, which secured his continuity in power in spite of reiterated corruption claims from the opposition. 

Voters will also choose 17 new governors across the country. 13 out of 17 departments in the country are run by governors belonging to the Colorado Party. 

“There’s a quieter election vibe this time around, probably because there’s less official campaign money and it’s divided among more candidates,” said López. 

Alfredo Boccia, a politics reporter from Paraguay pointed out in a conversation with the Herald that the lack of money is due to the Colorado Party losing its greatest source of income: Cartes, whose capital has been blocked after the aforementioned sanctions by the United States.

Paraguayan immigrants’ vote in Argentina 

With 500,000 people, the Paraguayan community in Argentina represents approximately 30% of the country’s migratory population. However, López told the Herald that the migrant vote in the election is low, “despite the fact that more than 10% of Paraguayans live abroad.”

She believes that the in-person register to vote is one of the reasons why. “Sometimes, it requires migrants to register in a different city or country,” she said.