Buenos Aires Herald 
The world is watching Argentina’s mid-term elections after President Donald Trump said that the United States’ unprecedented bailout for the country depended on how President Javier Milei fared in the polls.
“If [Milei] doesn’t win, we’re not going to waste that time, because you have somebody whose philosophy has no chance of making Argentina great again,” Trump said during a White House press conference with Milei on Tuesday.
Trump’s comments made it unclear whether he understood that this year’s elections are legislative mid-terms and the next presidential vote is not until 2027. Negotiations over the current bailout are not likely to be drawn out until the next presidential election, and Milei himself is not actually on the ballot this year.
With that in mind, here’s what you need to know about Argentina’s mid-terms.
Milei himself is not up for re-election as president in the polls, which will be held on October 26. However, his party, La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), is likely to gain more seats in Argentina’s Senate and Chamber of Deputies, since it is a relatively new political party that didn’t gain much political power until Milei’s surprise presidential win in 2023.
In the national mid-terms, Argentines will renew a third of senators (24 out of 72) and half of deputies (127 out of 257). Senators serve six-year terms and deputies, four-year terms.
This means that back in 2019, when the oldest third of the current senate were elected, and even in 2021, when the older half of the chamber of deputies and the middle third of the senate were elected, LLA was seen as a fringe far-right party.
How the vote could go
There are currently seven LLA senators and 37 deputies. Some lower-house lawmakers have split from the bloc but continue to vote with it, bringing their support to around 40.
A recent report by Morgan Stanley estimated that in the elections, the number of LLA senators will double to around 14.
In the Lower House, a strong performance, with LLA securing 40% support, could bring the number of deputies to 90. A poor performance, securing only 25%, would still see the number rise — but only to around 65.
This means that LLA will not command an absolute majority in either house even if it performs well.
Milei currently has a minority in Congress, and has been governing by either negotiating support with friendly opposition parties or issuing presidential vetoes, which are harder to overturn — although lawmakers have nonetheless overturned some of his attempts to block social spending recently.
However, the question of which party gets the most votes is crucial.
In September, Milei’s party suffered a major blow to the left-leaning Peronist opposition in important local elections in Buenos Aires Province. The district is a stronghold for Peronism, so it’s not surprising that they performed well, but while most analysts were expecting a margin of a couple of percentage points either way, most were shocked when Fuerza Patria, the Peronist front in the province, won by a margin of almost 14 percentage points.
National political positions were not on the ballot — but it was broadly interpreted as a litmus test of public support for the national government.
Another factor complicating Milei’s campaign is that his lead deputies candidate, Jose Luis Espert, pulled out of the elections at the last minute after it was revealed that he had received money from an accused drug trafficker and money launderer. This happened too late for voting slips to be reprinted, meaning they will bear Espert’s face.
Argentines will head to polling stations on Sunday, October 26. Whichever way the vote goes, the first numbers are likely to be released later that night.
