Martina Jaureguy Last Sunday’s 14-point electoral defeat to Peronism in the Buenos Aires province local elections topped off President Javier Milei’s roughest stretch to date. The debacle could not have come at a worse time, as ruling party La Libertad Avanza (LLA) is now forced to quickly regroup for the national legislative elections.
Although LLA is likely to gain Congressional representation in the October 26 midterms regardless of the results (only 8 of their 39 deputies are in play), the administration has placed high hopes on significantly increasing its legislative muscle in order to pass deeper changes, such as reforms to labor law and the pension system.
The lost election, however, has set off alarms in the government, as it deals with a falling image due to allegations of corruption and a faltering economy. With only six weeks left for the midterms, a question looms large for Milei and his party: do they have enough time to right the ship?
A string of setbacks
The government has been through its worst stretch over the past month. Economic growth has waned since a rebound in mid-2024 and the opposition in Congress managed to overturn one of Milei’s vetoes for the first time. The allegations of bribery involving Presidency Secretary Karina Milei — who is also the president’s sister — however, are what seem to have hit the government the hardest.
A poll by consultant agency Zuban Córdoba showed that 65% of Argentines wants the public officials involved to resign and surrender to the judiciary, while 56% believe Milei should be impeached over this.
According to Dr. Ariadna Gallo, a political scientist at Argentina’s top research council, CONICET, the bribery accusation was just the “icing on the cake.” In her view, the economy and the rise in inequality are the main reasons behind the government’s poor performance.
“Since May, living conditions for large swaths of the population have worsened,” she told the Herald.
Facundo Cruz, a political scientist and a member of the Research Center for Democratic Quality (CICAD, by its Spanish acronym), agreed that the “economic vote” was very prevalent.
“Buenos Aires province residents voted with their wallets,” he said, adding that polls show that the district is one of the few places in which disapproval of Milei’s performance has been on the rise since last year.
A Peronist win or a Libertarian defeat?
Although Governor Axel Kicillof was seen as the great winner of last Sunday’s elections, Gallo said that the results actually owed more to a “very poor” outing from LLA rather than a great performance by Peronism.
According to an X post by data analyst and CONICET researcher Rodrigo Quiroga based on public electoral data, the electoral front of LLA and PRO in 2025 lost around two million votes compared to the sum of what they got separately in the 2023 national elections (at the time, PRO ran as part of the now extinct Juntos por el Cambio coalition). Peronism, on the other hand, only lost 400,000.
Cruz agreed with the assessment, telling the Herald that Peronism “went all out and only managed to maintain their electoral base.”
Both analysts, however, said that the October election is still an open race. Although the province is the country’s most populated district with over 13 million registered voters (more than a third of the electorate), the result may not necessarily translate to other districts.
“Peronism has a slight upper hand, but it’s hard to extrapolate results at a national level,” Cruz mentioned, adding that the government has strong support in Northern Argentina and Patagonia. For Gallo, the scenario is still uncertain, as it depends on many variables, from market reactions to the social situation.
What happens now?
Milei vowed to correct course after the defeat, saying the government would “mend out all mistakes.” On Monday, he announced the formation of a political desk to assess the defeat that included himself, his sister, and Lower House speaker Martín Menem, among others. He also instructed his staff to reach out to governors and named former deputy Chief of Staff Lisandro Catalán as interior minister to lead the task.
In the same sprint, however, he also promised to stick to his guns. This week, Milei vetoed laws granting extra funds for public universities and public children’s hospitals, as well as another bill that would have distributed more funding to Argentina’s provinces.
“If they always think of the same solutions with the same people, the problem will persist,” Cruz said, adding that the announcements have been aimed at the political side, with no mention of economic measures. Economy Minister Luis Caputo has promised that there would be no changes on that front.
For Gallo, the president’s moves this week are indicative of a “state of denial.” “Popular backing is what gives you the room to double down like this, and things could turn on him badly,” she said.