Buenos Aires Herald editorial

Will they, won’t they? In and around St. Valentine’s this week, one potential new couple was the talk of the town: La Libertad Avanza and the PRO party.  

Although the two have been linked for a while now, rumors have gotten stronger since the collapse of the omnibus bill in Congress. In recent weeks, top government officials, including Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich, have made conspicuously public statements about an ever closer union between the president’s far-right libertarian alliance and his Security Minister’s conservative bloc. 

The parties first made their courtship public after October’s elections, when Mauricio Macri and a defeated Bullrich came out in support of Milei. Bullrich was ultimately named the Security Minister of the new government. Other former Macri-era officials returned to top government jobs: former Central Bank Chief Luis Caputo became Economy Minister and Federico Sturzenegger became a key, albeit informal, advisor. Macri’s machinations can be felt in many of the current government’s decisions. But will the two make it official?

A formal coalition between LLA and PRO would strengthen Milei’s hand in Congress, where he has just 15% of seats in deputies and 10% in the Senate. But, as political analyst Andrés Malamud pointed out earlier this week, a formal alliance with PRO would leave the government with just 29% of the lower house and 19% of the senate — well short of a majority. It wouldn’t even be able to block decisions that require supermajorities, such as impeachment proceedings.

Milei vehemently denies that Macri’s collaboration comes with strings attached. Theirs, he insists, is a meeting of minds, a free-flowing confluence of ideas that transcends the grubby horse-trading of politics. He’s convincing no one.

And it’s not all roses. First, there’s Bullrich, the head of the PRO and Security Minister of the LLA government. While standing firmly by Milei since losing the presidential bid, she distanced herself this week from Macri and said the coalition theories are mostly hot air — despite teasing it herself days earlier — and may be due to the party’s upcoming elections. 

Whether third wheel or wing-woman, Pato seemed over it: “I’m a minister, I’m doing other things, I’m not interested in doing an interview as Macri’s psychologist. Talk to Macri” she told Radio La Red on Thursday.

Then there’s the question of whether all of PRO would follow suit in a coalition with LLA. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Macri’s dovish erstwhile protegé, said in October that Milei was “very bad for Argentines” and refused to endorse him in the second round. But Larreta is no longer in a key state role and carries nowhere near the political weight he did this time last year. 

Nonetheless, analysts say that when it comes to LLA, PRO is all in. As two groupings that compete for the same voters, they have little choice — but that means PRO staking its fortune to that of Milei’s administration. Whoever ends up leading the party, it clearly needs to figure itself out a bit, preferably before committing to another partner.

What’s a good romcom without a scorned former partner whose status is unclear lurking in the background? That unfortunate role has been left to the PRO’s former allies of Juntos por el Cambio (JxC), namely the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) and the Coalición Cívica (CC). 

It’s probably safe to say that neither of these parties is interested in staying within the coalition, especially if it means joining forces with the government. Current UCR president Martín Lousteau and Jujuy Governor Gerardo Morales had very harsh words for Macri and Bullrich in October, accusing them of breaking up JxC and blaming the former president for the coalition’s defeat. 

CC leader Elisa Carrió has accused Macri of “always” favoring Milei and has been among the most vehement critics of the president’s ideas and policies. She has also said that her party is no longer a part of JxC and that they will strive to be a “responsible opposition” to the current government. 

The Spanish Wikipedia page for Juntos for el Cambio says it “was an Argentine political coalition that won the presidential elections in 2015.” Although the past tense would seem to dispel any doubts regarding the coalition’s status and their separation is very clear, no major figure has officially confirmed that it’s all over and everybody’s going their separate ways. 

At this point, it’s unclear whether this silence is due to some of the parties’ fear of being left out in the political cold or if they’re just on a break. What is undeniable is that all eyes are on the LLA and PRO courtship, anxiously waiting to see if they can finally update their dating profile.