A philosopher friend recently told me, “If you think Cristina is innocent, you need to check your bias. But if you think she was sentenced simply because she’s guilty, you also need to check your bias.” That phrase neatly captures Argentina’s current dilemma in light of the recent Supreme Court ruling confirming a 6-year sentence against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. 

News of her house arrest and lifetime disqualification from public office sent shockwaves through the political landscape, foreshadowing a fresh reconfiguration of the electoral map. But far from closing a cycle, the verdict seems to be accelerating a more complex mutation: What happens to Peronism without Cristina? And what happens to the rest of the political system when its central antagonist can no longer compete?

Javier Milei came to power promising to drive the final nail into Kirchnerism’s coffin. Yet 18 months into his administration, what recent elections have shown is that his party, La Libertad Avanza, has been more effective at burying Mauricio Macri’s PRO party than at displacing Peronism. Once the main opposition to Kirchnerism, the PRO now appears diminished, clinging to relevance by aligning itself with the president’s agenda.

It’s an open secret that the so-called “Clean Record” bill (Ficha Limpia), which would have barred Cristina from running before the Supreme Court’s ruling, was quietly buried by Milei’s own allies. If the Milei siblings killed the initiative as accusations suggest — they did so, not because Cristina posed a real threat (she was running for a modest provincial seat) — but because she served as the perfect symbol for a populist narrative in need of a clear enemy. Cristina was electorally harmless but politically useful.

Some critics argue that the Supreme Court’s ruling shows favoritism toward political elites. But if any party benefited, it was not the president’s party as much as Macri’s PRO. With Cristina out of the race, the party may regain relevance, either by reshaping their negotiations with Milei or by positioning itself as a renewed opposition, should Milei shift his antagonism toward Macri and his allies.

The most interesting shifts, however, are taking place within Peronism. Fernandez de Kirchner’s sentencing doesn’t dismantle the movement — it forces it to evolve. In Buenos Aires province, new fronts are already forming under banners like “Peronism Without Cristina” (in reference to the popular Peronism Without Peron movement during his exile) or “New Justicialism,” aiming to retain the electoral base without recycling the same leadership. 

Symbolically, Cristina’s positive image is paradoxically on the rise, as some view her as a victim of political persecution. While her electability wanes, her influence persists. The country’s polarization may no longer orbit solely around her, but she still distorts the gravitational field.

This isn’t the first time Peronism has had to reinvent itself in political exile. In the 1950s, Juan Perón recorded vinyl messages from Panama and Madrid that traveled house to house in Argentina, strongly influencing Peronist votes swaying elections and eventually returning to the political arena to be reelected president. Today, Cristina doesn’t need the complicated logistics of shipping LPs — she can shift national discourse with a single social media post.

Cristina’s house arrest in the central neighborhood of Monserrat includes access to a balcony overlooking the street. Occasionally, she steps out to greet her followers who maintain a vigil outside. Irony of ironies: locking a Peronist leader in an apartment with a balcony might be as effective at silencing her as locking the Human Torch in a fireworks warehouse.

Argentina’s political landscape is being reshuffled, but it’s still unclear on which board. Cristina is no longer a candidate, but she remains a powerful reference point. Her sentence doesn’t close an era — it opens a new chapter in the struggle over Peronism’s future, while the rest of the political field scrambles to define itself in the vacuum she’s left behind.

In May of 2019, with approval ratings so low that a presidential win seemed impossible, and amid chants of “They’ll never come back” from Macri’s supporters, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner shocked the political arena. She announced she would not lead the ticket, instead nominating Alberto Fernández as the presidential candidate, with her as his vice. That unexpected move led to an electoral victory and a return to power.

What happens next is unclear — but with Cristina, it’s certain to be unpredictable.