Argentina posted a record trade surplus of nearly US$14 billion in the first half of the year, driven by both higher exports and lower imports than in the same period last year, despite a weaker June trade balance.

On Monday, statistics institute INDEC reported a June trade surplus of a little over US$2 billion in June, the smallest surplus in four months. According to seasonally adjusted data, exports declined 0.9% from the previous month, while imports increased 3.4%.

“After several months in which domestic demand struggled to gain momentum, the improvement seen in seasonally adjusted import series is an encouraging sign for sectors tied to the domestic market, although it should still be interpreted with caution,” said Santiago Casas, chief economist at EcoAnalytics.

Year over year, both exports and imports increased, although exports rose at a significantly faster pace (24.5% versus 7.3%). 

“Total exports were slightly above US$9 billion, in line with market expectations reflected in the REM survey, while imports surprised on the upside at US$6.861 billion, accounting for most of the downside surprise in the trade balance,” analysts at Balanz noted.

Exports drive growth as imports show signs of recovery

The annual increase in imports was driven primarily by higher prices, as import volumes generally declined. Capital goods imports fell 12.1%, despite a 4.4% increase in intermediate goods. 

As a result, Casas emphasized that it is “still too early to conclude that domestic demand has entered a recovery phase, although some encouraging signs are beginning to emerge and deserve close monitoring.”

The largest contributors to the rise in imports were energy-related purchases, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and diesel fuel. This reflects the lagged impact of higher international energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Export growth, meanwhile, was driven by increases in both prices and volumes. 

“More than half of the year-over-year increase compared with 2025 came from manufactured agricultural products, led mainly by fats and oils, whose prices surged due to U.S. demand for biofuels. Manufactured industrial products, with gold and lithium among the standout exports, as well as fuels (+US$333 million), also made significant contributions,” consulting firm LCG explained.

Casas said the export outlook remained “very solid.”

“Not only have exports remained at high levels, but growth has spread across virtually all major categories. This confirms that the export sector continues to be the main engine of the Argentine economy and, for now, its primary source of growth,” he added.

Record first-half trade surplus: outlook ahead

The cumulative trade surplus for the first half reached almost US$14 billion, the highest on record for a first half (or the highest in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009), and five times larger than in the first half of 2025. 

Compared with the previous year, exports increased 24.4%, while imports declined 3.9%.

LCG consulting firm said nearly half of the year-over-year improvement in the trade balance reflected a narrower deficit in sectors that play a smaller role in Argentina’s foreign trade (US$17 billion in 2026 versus US$22 billion in 2025), while one-fifth came from a larger fuels and energy surplus.

Looking ahead, LCG expects the trade surplus to narrow somewhat as export growth loses momentum.” Even so, it forecasts total exports of around US$100 billion for 2026 and a trade surplus close to US$20 billion.

Similarly, Abeceb projects a trade surplus of approximately US$21 billion this year, with exports reaching around US$100 billion, supported by agriculture, energy, and mining, “although weaker oil and mineral prices have moderated their contribution.”

Abeceb expects a recovery in industrial activity and consumer spending during the second half of the year to support a stronger import growth.

This story was originally published in Ambito