The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Argentina will grow 5.5% in 2025, despite reducing its global growth forecast due to trade uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. It also remained bullish on the country’s economic horizon for 2026, projecting growth to hit 4.5%. 

The Argentine economy had shrunk by 1.8% in 2024, following two sharp devaluations in late 2023 and a series of austerity measures implemented by President Javier Milei’s government during his first year in office.

The Fund cut its global GDP growth projections to 2.8% for this year, 0.5 percentage points less than its January projection, and to 3% for 2026, down 0.3 points since the start of the year. The information was published in the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday. 

“Major policy shifts are resetting the global trade system and giving rise to uncertainty that is once again testing the resilience of the global economy,” the review said. 

The changes in the IMF’s projections were prompted by the global trade war unleashed by Trump’s tariff policy, which kicked off on April 2. Although the U.S. president recently announced a 90-day truce for all countries except China, the report stated that there are “concerns about the potential for further disorderly corrections.”

The United States’ projected growth for 2025 is expected to slow to 1.8%, almost a full percentage point less than its 2.8% January estimate. China was bumped down from 4.8% to 4%, with further cuts to Brazil and Japan. The Eurozone’s growth horizon also dropped, from 1 to 0.8%. 

The only country expected to grow more than Argentina in 2025 is India, with 6.2%.

The IMF also changed its outlook regarding global inflation, saying that tariffs will cause it to decline more slowly than expected. The report says global price rises will reach 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with “notable” upward revisions for the U.S. and other advanced economies.

“The global economy is entering a new era. Effective tariff rates reach levels not seen in a century,” IMF lead economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a post on X. He added that the IMF’s policy recommendations are “prudency and improved collaboration.”

“The first priority should be to restore a clear, stable and predictable trade environment. Monetary policy must remain agile; rebuilding fiscal buffers is crucial, and structural reforms remain needed.”