Delinquency rates among Argentine households rose for the 19th consecutive month in May, reaching nearly 13% of total household credit. At non-financial institutions like fintech companies and digital wallets, that figure exceeds 32% — a record high in both cases.

The data comes from a report based on official data by consulting firm 1816, which calculated that household delinquency rose from 12.1% in April to 12.7% in May. By way of comparison, only 2.5% of household loans were in default at the end of 2024. 

“The figure increased more than fivefold in just 19 months, something unprecedented since the end of the convertibility regime,” the report said, referencing the period between 1991 and 2002 when there was a fixed exchange rate between the Argentine peso and the U.S. dollar. 

The loan categories most affected from late 2024 to date are personal loans and credit cards, due to the worsening of credit conditions during the 2025 election period and stagnant wages, which remain below the levels seen before President Javier Milei took office.  

The official figure for non-financial institutions was 32.2%, up from less than 10% a year and a half ago

The report added that, while delinquency among individuals is high across all age groups, the decline is much more pronounced among younger people. 

“Nearly 40% of those under 35 with active loans, whether from financial or non-financial institutions, have at least one delinquent loan,” the brief noted.

Delinquency among businesses also rose, albeit at a much lower scale: from 3.3% in April to 3.5% in May. This translated to a rise in total delinquency for the private sector — businesses and households —  from 7.3% to 7.7%.

The 1816 report estimate is based on data from the Central de Deudores (in Spanish, CENDEU), a government agency dedicated to monitoring the Argentine credit system. The official delinquency figure will not be released until July 24, when the Central Bank (BCRA) publishes its Banking Report.

The government’s view and the outlook going forward

Central Bank Vice President Vladimir Werning recently stated that delinquency had “peaked in the second quarter,” which is nearing its end. For this reason, the consulting firm recommended “keeping a close eye” on the data for June and July.

However, it warned that credit would need to grow for delinquency rates to stop rising. This did not happen in May, and, according to the consulting firm’s latest data, it is not expected to happen in June either.

The brief also stated that it is “unlikely” that household credit will become a significant driver of economic activity between now and the 2027 elections, as it was between the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025.

This is because, on the one hand, the Argentine economy is performing well only in sectors with low labor demand, such as agriculture, mining, and energy. Sectors such as commerce, industry, and construction — which are more labor-intensive — have yet to recover. 

Another reason cited in the report is that more than 27% of people who took out loans are no longer eligible for credit because they have fallen into default. Despite this situation, the BCRA has repeatedly warned that it has no intention of bailing out affected households. 

In mid-May, Central Bank head Santiago Bausili explicitly blamed the situation on the banks.

“We’re not going to make decisions with other people’s money, and I trust the banks to resolve the situation without our financial help. They’ll be much more creative figuring out what to do with their own money.”