Paraguay produced one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 World Cup on Monday, knocking out one of the tournament favorites, Germany, in a penalty shootout after a gritty 1-1 draw.

The historic victory also underscored one of the tournament’s defining storylines: South American teams consistently getting the better of their European counterparts.

Few gave Paraguay much of a chance before kickoff at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with many predicting a comfortable German victory. 

Yet some observers pointed to head coach Julian Nagelsmann’s side’s struggles in front of goal and suggested that a disciplined defensive display could keep the South Americans in the game.

That proved to be exactly how the match unfolded. Germany dominated possession, controlling 79% of the ball in the first half, but failed to create any clear-cut chances. 

Paraguay, by contrast, made the most of its only dangerous counterattack, taking a 1-0 lead just before halftime.

Germany finally found an equalizer after the break, but despite registering 21 shots and completing more than 500 passes in Paraguay’s half, it could not find a winner. The match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time.

VAR comes to Paraguay’s rescue

Paraguay survived a major scare in extra time when the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) intervened to rule out what appeared to be Germany’s winning goal. 

Officials detected a foul on goalkeeper Orlando Gill inside the six-yard box moments before Jonathan Tah headed the ball into the net.

The match was ultimately decided from the penalty spot.

Gill emerged as Paraguay’s hero, saving efforts from Kai Havertz and Nick Woltemade. Antonio Sanabria failed to convert for Paraguay, while Manuel Neuer denied Fabián Balbuena, leaving the shootout finely balanced.

In the sixth round, Tah blasted his penalty over the crossbar before José Canale calmly converted the decisive kick, sending Paraguay into the quarter-finals.

The win was an historic one for Paraguay, prompting President Santiago Peña to declare a national holiday to celebrate. It’s echoes the decision of Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa, who also declared a holiday after the Tri narrowly beat the Germans in the group stage to secure qualification to the round of 32.

The side, coached by Argentine Gustavo Alfaro, will face either France or Sweden on Saturday at 6 p.m. Argentina time for a place in the final eight.

South American dominance

Paraguay’s victory reinforced an unexpected pattern at this year’s World Cup, with European teams winning just one of seven direct encounters against South American opposition.

Some results followed expectations. Brazil comfortably defeated Scotland 3-0, while Argentina beat Austria 2-0. But the tournament has also produced major surprises, including Paraguay’s 1-0 victory over Türkiye and Ecuador’s 2-1 upset over Germany.

Colombia was unfortunate to be held to a draw by Portugal despite dominating much of the match, although the result was enough to secure top spot in its group. 

Spain remains the only European side to have defeated South American opposition, edging Uruguay 1-0 thanks to a fortunate goal.

Paraguay’s triumph against Germany only adds to that remarkable trend.

The performances echo last year’s Club World Cup, where Copa Libertadores champions Botafogo stunned European champions Paris Saint-Germain 1-0. 

Despite the vast financial gulf between clubs on the two continents, Palmeiras, Boca Juniors and Fluminense also earned hard-fought draws against Porto, Benfica and Borussia Dortmund, suggesting the gap on the pitch may be narrower than many had assumed.

Cover image: FIFA