Argentina has an estimated poverty rate of 51.8%, according to a study published by Torcuato Di Tella University. It’s the latest in a series of projected data that portends an alarming rise in the country’s number of poor people. 

The report estimates that poverty over the past six months is 48.3%, an average of the 44.9% projected for the last trimester of 2023 and the current 51.8% for the first three months of this year.

The “Poverty Nowcast” publishes reports every semester and updates its data monthly with information from the National Institute for Statistics and Census (INDEC, by its Spanish acronym). For its projected poverty rate, it uses data from the Buenos Aires basic basket, accounting for inflation, and INDEC’s Permanent Household Survey. The survey monitors social indicators in urban areas.

According to the study, conducted by researcher Martín González-Rozada, the basic basket for the semester is AR$177,598 (US$195 at the official rate or US$172 at the MEP rate) per adult, a 239% year on year increase. The urban population was estimated at 29.3 million, meaning that 14.2 million are considered to be below the poverty line. 

The figure is an eight percentage point increase compared with the 43.7% poverty rate Nowcast reported in January. 

Poverty measurements over the last six months in Argentina have been delivering soaring figures. According to the INDEC, the rate hit 41.7% during the second half of 2023, affecting 19.4 million people. The Argentine Catholic University’s respected Social Debt Observatory published a report in January that placed the figure at 57.1%, the highest number since 2004, when the observatory began publishing reports. 

Yearly inflation in Argentina is now running at 287.9%, according to figures released on Friday. The number, 9.7 points higher than February’s, indicates that Argentina’s runaway price hikes remain the worst in the world.

Monthly inflation cooled to 11% in March, a two-point drop from February, according to the report. The number marks the third monthly decrease in a row after it hit 25.5% in December, the highest since February 1991. Cumulative inflation for the first three months of the year reached 51.6%. 

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