Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira has astonished Bolivia by coasting to first position in the country’s presidential elections on Sunday. He will now compete in a run-off against second-placed Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. MAS, the left-wing political party that has governed the country for two decades, has been knocked out of the presidential race.

According to preliminary figures announced by the electoral authorities, Paz’s Partido Demócrata Cristiano party had 32%, Quiroga’s Libertad y Democracia had 26.9%, and Unidad, the party of Samuel Doria Medina — considered a frontrunner during the campaign — had 19.9%. 

The official final count will be available within 72 hours.

The presidential run-off will take place on October 19. The makeup of Bolivia’s congress will be established based on the results of the first round.

To win outright, candidates would have needed to secure more than 50% of the vote, or more than 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over the second-placed candidate.

Bolivia’s next government will have the challenging task of fixing an economy that is in decline, as its reserves of natural gas — a major source of foreign currency income — expire. A shortage of dollars has led to parallel dollar exchange rates sprouting, fuel shortages, and limits on how the population accesses foreign currency. 

Eduardo Del Castillo, the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) candidate, appears to have scraped 3.1% of the vote, just past the 3% threshold required to maintain legal personhood. Analysts said the party’s political collapse reflected an anti-MAS vote: facing dismal approval ratings, current president Luis Arce did not stand for re-election. 

Senate President and coca growers’ union leader Andrónico Rodríguez, a former MAS member and erstwhile protégé of former long-time leftist leader Evo Morales who split with his former mentor, received 8% of the vote.

Shortly after 11 a.m. local time, an explosive charge was set off near the polling station where Rodríguez was due to vote in the tropical town of Entre Ríos, in Cochabamba department. The authorities confirmed that there had been a small explosion, but did not immediately report injuries or damage to the building. 

Firecrackers and other small explosive charges are often set off during protests and celebrations in Bolivia. Their use does not generally signal aggression.

Who is Rodrigo Paz Pereira?

Rodrigo Paz Pereira, 57, is a senator for the southern department of Tarija and the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora. His running-mate, Edman Lara, is a former police officer known for crusading against corruption in the police force. 

The duo ran for the Partido Demócrata Cristiano party.

Changing political tides for Bolivia?

Former President Evo Morales encouraged the electorate to spoil their ballots. The three-term former leader aspired to run for a fourth term, but was unable to form an eligible party after splitting with MAS. Morales has been charged with statutory rape and trafficking — accusations he is also facing in Argentina. In order to avoid arrest, he has remained sequestered for months in Chapare, his base of support in the tropical region of Cochabamba department.

Moreover, Bolivia’s Plurinational Constitutional Court ruled on May 13 that nobody can serve more than two terms as president or vice president, irrespective of whether those terms are consecutive.

Morales is the first president hailing from Bolivia’s large Indigenous population. After taking office in 2006, his leftwing government oversaw an era of economic prosperity, tackling inequality, and enhancing the rights of Indigenous people.

However, in 2019 he controversially ran for a fourth consecutive term in office, disregarding a referendum on term limits that would have blocked his candidacy. Protests erupted across the country when a last-minute uptick in support for him during the vote count indicated that he had won in the first round, sparking allegations of fraud — claims which were credibly disputed. He was ultimately forced out in a coup in November, 2019.

Far-right senator Jeanine Áñez acted as interim leader for one year, before calling elections. Arce, who served as Morales’s economy minister, won a landslide first-round victory over centrist opponent, Carlos Mesa. However, Morales and Arce soon fell out, in a political rift that ended up splitting the party.