The author is the director of the School of International Relations at the University of Rosario and a specialist in Argentina-U.S. relations

The electoral results in the United States are in and the Republican Party has come out on top. Donald Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College by winning in seven swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona). Republicans also obtained a majority in the Senate and are close to achieving the same in the House of Representatives. If, on top of that, we add that six of the nine Supreme Court Justices are conservative, we see a significant majority in the three branches of state power, something very unusual in U.S. elections. This could alter the mechanism of checks and balances.

This accumulation of institutional and political power shows the Democratic Party must take a look in the mirror. Their leaders will have to do some serious soul searching. There are questions to be asked — not only about why they performed so badly, but also regarding their mistakes during the Biden administration and throughout the campaign. Their message clearly did not appeal to voters because there are issues of the progressive domestic agenda in which political elites and large parts of society do not see eye to eye. 

We can also infer that the United States is not ready for a woman president and that, despite a clear Republican win, society remains deeply polarized. This means that a significant proportion of the country is worried by the announcements Trump has made in recent months that he intends to seek revenge against judges, prosecutors, media outlets, and politicians. 

Many of us thought the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, by Trump supporters crossed a red line, as an attack against the heart of the political system. However, this proved not to be the case. Voters seemed to have forgotten these images and the risk they meant for their country and its international reputation. Social memory in many Western countries appears to be getting shorter. The result is that many political ideas and norms we once considered indisputable are no longer so. 

Although Donald Trump and his vice presidential candidate JD Vance are the most visible faces of the Republican triumph, we shouldn’t forget Elon Musk. His role and campaign proposals strengthen the idea that tech-utopia businesspeople, whom political scientist Ian Bremmer describes as those who wish to replace many of the nation-state’s functions, are gaining ground and will have more influence on the lives of society, as well as the international order.   

On the judicial front, we will have to pay attention to the Supreme Court and its members. Trump will have no difficulty getting the Senate to name ultra-conservative judges in the face of the possible retirement of Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. We should also monitor the fate of the four judges currently carrying out trials involving the president-elect. 

Regarding state bureaucracy, Trump has promised to reform numerous state dependencies by destroying them. This could lead to an administration even more beset by Trump’s cult of personality and continue to disarm the inner dynamic of the Republican Party, which is now firmly in the grasp of the MAGA movement. 

Trump’s win will also strengthen far-right leaders and politicians in Europe and Latin America. Argentine President Javier Milei and the movement centered around former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will reap benefits from this dynamic, while conservative movements worldwide will also be emboldened. 

It remains to be seen how Trump will handle relationships with Europe and the so-called capitalist autocracies, namely Russia and China. There are also questions regarding his proposed solutions to end the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict between Israel and Palestine, as well as the effects of his announced protectionism and its impact on the world and the region. 

Any doubts regarding how the markets will react have been resolved: all is well. It is important to remember that, while Trump fashions himself a crusader against the political and financial establishment, he has never harmed the latter.