“WE HAVE THE STRENGTH TO BRING ORDER TO ARGENTINA,” wrote Patricia Bullrich on X (formerly Twitter). The caption accompanied a picture of the Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) presidential candidate surrounded by seven JxC-aligned governors-elect as well as four of the coalition’s gubernatorial candidates –– two of whom are the solid favorites in their races. 

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. I’d value this one at four: “I can actually govern.”

The message from the Bullrich camp is refreshingly lucid. The JxC candidate has positioned order as the keystone of her campaign. In practical terms, however, her conception of order, beyond vague allusions to Bukeleism, has been less than clear. But now, with seven governorships under her coalition’s belt, it’s becoming increasingly evident that governance is a key component. 

Provincial governors wield substantial power in Argentina. Backing from provincial executives is crucial for anyone looking to get anything done.

Juntos por el Cambio have made out like gubernatorial bandits this year, poaching five governorships from the ruling Unión por la Patria (UxP) coalition. Though JxC was the incumbent, candidate Alfredo Cornejo’s resounding victory in Mendoza on Sunday blew even more wind under the opposition coalition’s wings. Whether or not that local support for JxC translates to electoral success for Bullrich remains to be seen. What is evident is a messaging shift from Juntos por el Cambio, whose presidential candidate is fighting for her political life. 

A recent opinion survey by the University of San Andrés found that 24% of respondents plan to vote for libertarian candidate Javier Milei, 20% for Sergio Massa, and 18% for Bullrich, suggesting that the former security minister might not make it to the probable runoff. 

Bullrich’s right flank has been under siege by Milei and his allies, who blast her policy platform as incoherent, unfocused, and unoriginal. On X, the hashtag BullrichesMassa (Bullrich is Massa) abounds. Bullrich, after weeks on the defensive, has begun to hit back at Milei with what appears to be a one-two punch. 

The jab: highlight the very real logistical challenges that Milei would face as a president. Bullrich has at least seven allied governors in her pocket. The libertarian has zero. JxC and UxP are political machines capable of mobilizing voters at the local level, while Milei’s La Libertad Avanza is more of a floating head. That is likely to cost him in local and legislative elections. 

The hook: attack Milei’s “anti-caste” credentials. Having campaigned on a promise to “drain the swamp”, Milei is now trying to attract more mainstream allies. Working against him is his own flagship policy proposal –– dollarization –– which much of Argentina’s business and policymaking community opposes. 

But he keeps on, and with some success. Luis Barrionuevo, head of the Hotel, Tourism, and Gastronomy Workers’ Union, has emerged as a prominent Milei acolyte, fundraising for the libertarian’s campaign. Bullrich sank her teeth into the libertarian’s alliance with the decades-long union leader, bashing it as hypocritical. The caste, she claimed, also runs through Milei. 

It is a line of attack that Bullrich will likely reinforce in the coming weeks, especially as the libertarian scrambles to grow his mainstream appeal. She might receive some help from the Peronists. Massa and Unión por la Patria need her to remain just competitive enough to keep Milei from winning outright in the first round. 

Despite his lack of support from Argentina’s more traditional forces, Milei’s unorthodox proposals clearly resonate with much of Argentina’s disillusioned electorate. According to that same University of San Andrés poll, 88% of Argentines are dissatisfied with the economic policy status quo. 

Those feelings of popular disenchantment encourage him to double down on ditching the peso. Last week, he named Emilio Ocampo, a vocal supporter of dollarization, as his prospective central bank chief. Ocampo, Milei asserted, will close down the central bank once he takes office. 

Bullrich is trying to exude “order and stable change” (success TBD), Milei is manifesting political revolution, and Massa is doing his best to keep the Peronist base’s head above inflationary water, as well as dragging the limp economy through to the elections. 

A ban on all government activity that could be interpreted as vote-seeking came into effect on Wednesday. Massa’s Economy Ministry is now barred from announcing new economic support measures. But the UxP candidate took care to milk every last drop of visibility and influence afforded to him as economy minister before the prohibition took effect. 

Over the last week, Massa has rolled out a policy carousel that includes tax breaks, cash transfers, and a preferential exchange rate. The first two initiatives benefit self-employed and informal workers (the latter representing 36.7%% of Argentina’s workforce), small and medium-sized businesses, and people collecting unemployment benefits. 

The measures, according to Massa, aim to offset the effects of inflation, which continues to push more and more Argentines into poverty. While they could relieve pain in the short term, critics argue the policies –– which might need to be funded upfront by money printing –– are an inflationary ouroboros that will ultimately exacerbate the problem they seek to assuage.

Massa has thrown everything, including the kitchen sink, into maintaining his country’s weak economic pulse. The strategy might be successful at carrying the economy through the elections. But one cannot help but feel that this duct-tape approach to policy making is passing the buck of implementing necessary but painful economic measures to whoever takes office on December 10.