President Javier Milei hopes that massive investments in energy and mining will not only reshape the country’s productive and export profile but also transform where millions of Argentines live.

Deregulation and State Transformation Minister Federico Sturzenegger, one of the cabinet members most closely aligned with the president’s economic ideas, has expressed this ambition the clearest.

Sturzenegger recently stated that 1.5 million people could move to Neuquén over the next thirty years. The province is the epicenter of oil and shale gas development, Vaca Muerta, and the region with the country’s highest economic growth rate.

If this estimate proves accurate, it would imply a population increase of 111%, something unprecedented given that there are 710,000 people currently living in the Patagonian province.

Sturzenegger also projected that mining investments over the same period would attract one million new residents to Catamarca. Given that the province currently only has 367,000 inhabitants, the population growth would mean a 172% increase.

The minister estimated that San Juan would gain around 800,000 residents, nearly doubling its current population.

These projections, however, clash with expert estimates. 

While specialists do expect population growth in these provinces, they believe it will be far more limited, similar to what happened in countries like Chile and Australia.

Limited impact on the labor market

“Mining, oil, gas, and energy are highly capital-intensive sectors: they require enormous investments, but they do not generate direct employment in the same proportion,” warned a recent report by center-right think tank Fundación Mediterránea.

The organization estimated that the projects announced in these sectors — several of which were approved under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (in Spanish, RIGI) — could lead to the creation of nearly 50,000 direct jobs.

If indirect jobs are included, the figure could reach between 200,000 and 300,000 positions. For comparison, nearly 340,000 registered salaried jobs have been lost since Milei took office, according to data from the Superintendence of Occupational Risks (SRT).

“For the receiving provinces, this could represent a significant change; for the national labor market, however, it remains a relevant but limited phenomenon [equivalent to almost 5% of registered formal employment or 1.4% of total employment],” the Fundación Mediterránea brief explained.

The report cited the case of Neuquén itself, which recorded a 40% increase in registered private-sector employment over the last decade. This figure, however, only represents 40,000 jobs, a number that is 

Another example is Chile, known for its copper mining industry, the country’s leading export sector.

“Even when indirect employment is included, the sector’s share of employment remains low relative to total employment,” explained the report authored by economist Jorge Day.

‘Selective’ migration to the rest of the country

Another factor that may work against the Milei administration’s expectations is that workers and their families may be unwilling to relocate due to the economic, family, and social costs involved.

With nearly 11 million inhabitants, according to the latest official census, the Greater Buenos Aires area is not only Argentina’s most populous area but has also been the country’s industrial heartland for nearly a century.

It currently accounts for 49% of Argentina’s manufacturing output, according to data from the Industrial Union of the Province of Buenos Aires (in Spanish, UIPBA).

“Global trends point in the opposite direction of massive migration toward peripheral areas. Population and economic activity tend to concentrate in large cities, where there are larger markets, specialized services, and professional networks,” Day argued.

For this reason, he maintained that migration to Argentina’s provinces will “likely be selective.” He added that the phenomenon will occur more readily among young workers, as well as technicians and professionals with experience in activities linked to these projects.

A massive relocation of lower-skilled workers, families deeply rooted in Buenos Aires province, or workers whose profiles are less compatible with the new projects appears less likely.

Day added that the experiences of Chile and Australia show that a significant share of labor demand in these regions was met by workers who traveled to mining or energy sites for several days or weeks before returning to their place of residence.

Therefore, in Argentina, “part of this demand could be met through temporary migration or labor rotation, without necessarily increasing the resident population in the same proportion.”

“The idea of greater labor migration toward the rest of the country is reasonable but limited. There will be winning provinces and cities, greater demand for workers, and more selective migration. But the shift will neither be automatic nor necessarily massive,” he concluded.