An analysis by JP Morgan presented a summary of the economic direction taken by the United States President Donald Trump and the future of the US dollar, warning that it poses similar risks to the protectionist measures taken by former Argentine President Juan Domingo Perón.

The document, titled the “2025 Mid-Year Outlook,” warned of increasing risks to the U.S. currency as a result of measures taken by the current Donald Trump administration since he took office for a second time in January. 

In the report’s third chapter, titled “Is this the downfall of the U.S. dollar?”, it read: “The risk for markets is that U.S. policymakers repeat the mistakes of Latin American leaders such as former Argentinian President Juan Perón: protectionism, lack of central bank independence and a broader macroeconomic stability.” 

“Ironically, many Latin American economies have made substantial progress in these areas just as market participants are increasingly questioning U.S. economic credibility.”

Perón’s protectionist policies during the 1940s and 1950s involved restricting imports through tariffs, quotas, and other regulations, to protect Argentina’s domestic industries. The aim was to promote national self-sufficiency rather than relying on foreign imports — a similar rhetoric used by Trump when he started a global trade war with tariffs given to every country around the world.

The report also noted that “almost 70% of investors believe the dollar is overvalued” and that “61% expect it to continue depreciating.”

In its introduction, JP Morgan noted that “investors were not asking as many questions six months ago,” before Trump took office.

“Many of them initially cheered the incoming U.S. administration, which they believed would be pro-growth and investor friendly. That no longer seems a sure thing.”