May inflation in Argentina clocked in at 2.1%, according to a report released Thursday by statistics agency INDEC.

The figure is a slight dip compared to April’s 2.6%, marking the first time in twelve months that the inflation rate has slowed for two consecutive months. 

It is also the lowest figure in the last nine months, surpassed only by the 1.9% recorded in August 2025.

Core inflation, meanwhile, stood at 1.9%, a significant slowdown from the previous month’s 2.3% and the lowest figure since July of last year. Prices rose 33.2% year-over-year, while cumulative inflation so far in 2026 stands at 14.7%.

A breakdown of the increases

Prices for seasonal products saw the largest increase, rising by 3.5%, due to higher vegetable prices. This increase, however, was offset by a decline in fruit prices. 

The category with the largest increase was communications (+3.4%), driven by higher telephone service rates. The second category with the highest increases was education, at 2.9%. 

Broken down by region, the Northwest recorded the largest increase, at 2.6%, while Patagonia was at the opposite end of the spectrum, with a monthly increase of 1.9%. 

The figure was slightly better than that reported by private consulting firms, which had agreed that May would show a further moderation in price increases.

“After several months, inflation is lower than the market had expected,” said Fernando Marull, an economist and partner at the consulting firm FMyA. 

According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (in Spanish, REM) conducted by the Argentine Central Bank, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be 2.3%, but it ended up at 2.1%.

This is something that hasn’t happened since August of last year.

What to expect going forward

Experts agree that this downward trend will continue over the coming months. 

According to consulting firm C&T, prices show a slight moderation at the start of June. “The rolling 4-week average inflation, which had closed at 2.2% in May, fell to 2.1%,” by the first week of the month, they explained.

EcoGo projects an inflation of 1.9% for this month, although they clarified that the figure is still preliminary and subject to change.

The REM — which compiles estimates from 34 local and international consulting firms and research centers, as well as 12 financial institutions in Argentina — estimates June inflation to be 2.1%. 

They project the rate to gradually decline until breaking the 2% barrier in August (1.9%), eventually dropping to 1.7% by November.

This would be a significant accomplishment for President Javier Milei, as his administration was only able to keep monthly inflation below 2% between May and August 2025, following the easing of foreign exchange restrictions for retail buyers. 

This, however, would represent a much more modest goal than the one originally proposed by the Argentine president. Just three months ago, Milei had assured that August’s retail inflation would start at “0. [something] %.”