International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokeswoman Julie Kozack has confirmed that Argentina’s government has requested a US$20 billion agreement from the lender — but not that the IMF staff has agreed on that figure.

Kozack’s statement came one day after Economy Minister Luis Caputo said that Argentina had reached a US$20 billion agreement with the IMF staff.

“We can confirm that the Managing Director had a call with Minister Caputo to discuss next steps in the preparation of a new 4-year EFF [Extended Fund Facility] program, and that the Argentine authorities requested an overall financing package of US$20 billion,” Kozack said in a Friday X post. She did not mention the staff agreeing with Argentina’s request.

Any agreement and its phasing are “subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board,” she added. 

“As we have said, progress on the new program is very advanced and engagement continues at all levels to finalize an agreement that will help Argentina consolidate its already successful economic program,” she concluded.

In mid-March, President Javier Milei issued an executive order mandating the approval of the IMF deal. Congress approved his order, but key details of the deal, including the value and potential conditions regarding Argentina’s monetary policy, were not announced by authorities. 

On Thursday, Caputo attempted to calm market jitters by saying during a conference presentation that the IMF staff and the government had agreed on a new program valued at US$20 billion. 

Pablo Repetto, head of research for Aurum Valores brokerage, said Caputo had tried to reverse expectations of a devaluation, but failed to calm the waters. The Central Bank kept selling off dollars through the end of the week, shedding US$84 million on Thursday and US$192 million on Friday. With Friday’s results, the monetary authority has been on a ten-day selling streak in which it lost US$1.6 billion.

Market sources told the Herald that doubts remain over whether a US$20 billion deal would comprise exclusively fresh funds or include the US$14 billion Argentina has to pay the lender in the next four years. They also asked whether the program would force Argentina to abandon its 1% monthly devaluation of the peso (known as the “crawling peg”) and adopt a new foreign exchange regime. Other incognitos include the disbursement calendar and the size of the Fund’s upfront payment.

Echoes of 2018

Caputo’s move is reminiscent of a 2018 announcement by then-President Mauricio Macri. Four months after he signed the largest agreement in the Fund’s history, the exchange rate was surging. Macri recorded a statement saying the IMF and Argentina had agreed “to bring forward all funds necessary to ensure compliance with next year’s financial program.” That would have meant the IMF paying US$19 billion on top of the disbursements scheduled for 2018 and 2019.

However, multiple experts and insiders with knowledge of the negotiations subsequently confirmed that those conversations never took place. According to the book Argentina en el Fondo (Argentina at the Fund) by former IMF Western Hemisphere director Alejandro Werner and economics journalist Martín Kanenguiser, Macri made the announcement after being convinced to do so by his Central Bank chief — who, at the time, was Luis Caputo.

Almost a month later, after Caputo had resigned, the Fund finally announced that it would go through with the disbursements as requested by the Argentine government.