Argentine markets traded on Tuesday amid the global volatility kick-started by United States President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy, which is already disrupting the financial world.

The country’s EMBI index, which measures the possibility of a default on its debt, ticked up to 978 basis points, its highest value since October. During the day, it even reached 1,000 basis points.

Media reports from Tuesday suggest the International Monetary Fund (IMF) board will meet on Friday to discuss a new deal with Argentina, which Congress already approved before any details were known, but was not enough to calm down the markets.

One market analyst said that the peso-denominated debt was affected by investors dollarizing their portfolios and ending their carry trade operations. Carry trade entails using U.S. dollars to buy peso-denominated debt, then buying back more dollars with the profit once the credit matures. The difference between the U.S. dollar devaluation and the peso-denominated financial instruments made carry trade attractive for investors, but that it depended almost exclusively on the 1% monthly depreciation of the peso implemented by the Central Bank. However, a new deal with the IMF could change that exchange rate scheme.

According to the analyst, who spoke anonymously, investors fear that a devaluation could impact prices and interest rates. 

“You have maturities between now and July for the equivalent of about US$10 billion per month,” he added, saying that if the IMF demands lifting exchange rate restrictions, it could add to the uncertainty. He added that the effect of Trump’s tariffs leads investors to take “more conservative and dollarized positions.”

On Tuesday, the Central Bank sold US$60 million in the single and free exchange market, and gross international reserves now sit at US$24.6 billion — their lowest value since January 2024. The monetary authority was forced to sell dollars in 18 out of the last 19 working days.

“The global context is not positive for emerging markets, and the fear of global currency corrections adds an additional factor,” Pablo Repetto, head of research at the Aurum Valores brokerage, told the Herald. “On top of that, we [Argentina] are not accumulating reserves.”

Some outlets went as far as to even say that the IMF’s first disbursement would be US$12 billion out of the total US$20 billion Argentina is requesting. However, for Repetto, the most relevant elements of the deal — the repayment schedule and the conditions the IMF is imposing on Argentina — have not been disclosed. “I’ll have to see to believe,” he added. 

Most Argentine companies on Wall Street, which trade through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), saw declines. Steel manufacturer Ternium (-7.1%), biotech company Bioceres (-6.8%), and oil and gas driller Vista Energy (-5.5%) took the worst of the hits.

Argentine bonds saw increases and decreases throughout the day. The main growth was for the Bonar 2029 (+4.5%), followed by the Bonar 2041 (+0.7%), and the Bonar 2038 (+0.4%). The most relevant drops were for the Bonar 2035 (-2.1%), the Bonar 2030 (-1.9%), and the Bonar 2029 (-1.1%).

Gustavo Quintana, an analyst and broker for PR Corredores de Cambio, said the global outlook appears grim and will continue to impact local markets. “For the time being, the external volatility outweighs the domestic announcements and opens a waiting period here.”