Andrés Lerner 
Argentina’s agroindustrial sector is expecting a sharp drop in dollar inflows in the coming days following the expiration of a temporary reduction in export duties. Exporters warn that settlements of proceeds could fall by more than half.
This means foreign currency supply from the agricultural sector could be in short supply until November.
The government is closely monitoring exchange rate movements, the futures market, and interest rates. After briefly surpassing AR$1,300 at the start of the week, the dollar closed Tuesday at AR$1,275 at Banco Nación. The economic team breathed a sigh of relief. Heading into the elections, they are betting on a stable exchange rate to keep inflation in check.
But trouble is looming on the supply side. Exporters expect the extraordinary flow of dollars seen in the first half of the year to taper off gradually in the coming days. A well-placed industry source told the Herald’s sister title Ámbito that the drop will exceed 50%.
Buoyed by the temporary cut in export taxes, agroindustry had been liquidating roughly US$200 million per day, but sources told Ámbito they expect that figure to fall to US$100 million or less in the near term. This could last through November unless the government introduces another preferential exchange rate, a possibility that nobody is yet willing to definitively rule out.
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“Just as the dollar hovered around the lower half of the exchange rate band in the first half of the year, it will shift to the upper half in the second,” said financial analyst Christian Buteler. Private consulting firms agree: demand will rise due to seasonal factors and characteristics of the current model, such as currency appreciation and trade liberalization.
According to data from the Oilseed Industry Chamber (CIARA), the sector brought in US$15.4 billion in the first half of the year, a 40% year-on-year increase. But even with a record-breaking inflow of agricultural dollars, maintaining currency stability comes at a cost. Interest rates have surged, increasing the risk of further economic slowdown.
Pressure on the dollar in the second half of 2025
In May, economic activity shrank by 0.1% month-on-month, according to INDEC. In June, mass consumption dropped by 0.8% year-on-year and also slipped slightly in seasonally adjusted monthly terms, according to figures from Scentia, a consulting firm specializing in retail data.
The effects of the tax break’s expiry are already visible upstream. “What’s being traded now are the sworn declarations from last month,” a grain market trader told Ámbito. “But when it comes to new agricultural sales, everything is at a standstill.”
At meetings with influential business circles, the sector continues to press its case on export taxes. But the budget leaves the Economy Ministry little room to maneuver, and President Javier Milei’s fiscal commitments remain firm.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo picked up the gauntlet, responding publicly to agroindustry. He highlighted several measures already implemented for the sector and stated that “the government’s obsession is with export taxes,” calling for “trust and patience.”
For now, though, the numbers don’t add up — and the sector is poised to slow its sales through the end of the year.