The Milei administration is increasingly optimistic that it will reach a new assistance agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Herald’s sister publication Ambito reported on Tuesday. 

“The Fund’s technical team is holding consultations with the Executive Board,” IMF sources confirmed, adding that talks concerning a new program are “advanced” and within the framework of their “normal internal processes.” 

Earlier in the day, as the Fund’s Board of Directors held an informal meeting about the new loan, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with his Argentine counterpart over the phone before issuing a message of support on X — a post that was interpreted positively by some in the Ministry of Finance. Specifically, they cited Macron’s statement that “the Argentine people can always count on France’s support.”

“Thank you, President @EmmanuelMacron,” the Argentine president responded. “We deeply appreciate your support and France’s commitment to the Argentine people. We will continue working together, as true friends, to face the challenges and build shared opportunities in key sectors for the future.”

French authorities are not the only state officials with whom the Argentine government is believed to have spoken. While there has been no official confirmation, Ambito has learned that Argentina has also gained the support of Italy and the United States, the Fund’s most powerful board member.

Milei enjoys close personal relationships with both Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and U.S. President Donald Trump. Thus, it is believed that Argentina now has the backing, in principle, of the countries with the greatest influence at the Fund: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States.

Confidence at the Casa Rosada

The Casa Rosada remains tight-lipped about the progress of its talks with the IMF, but sources close to the negotiations indicate that “there is a calm and a confidence that point to a positive resolution.” However, these same sources also acknowledge the impatience of the markets. On Tuesday, the Central Bank was forced to sell more foreign currency and has already lost $1.3 billion.

After days of tension in the foreign exchange market, traders are still waiting to learn what the terms of the new official exchange rate policy will be. Last week, Economy Minister Luis Caputo caused a stir when he declined to confirm the continuation of the so-called crawling peg scheme. 

Ultimately, the future exchange rate policy can only be known when an agreement with the IMF is finalized. Milei has claimed a pact will be completed sometime in mid-April, although official sources say it could take until the end of the month. This uncertainty could be resolved sooner when a staff agreement is revealed.

An announcement is expected this Thursday when the Fund’s spokesperson, Julie Kozack, will hold a press conference. Some in the financial sector have speculated that Kozack will reveal when the IMF plans to discuss Argentina’s case.

According to the Fund’s transparency policy, all board meetings must be scheduled in advance. Discussions surrounding Argentina’s new loan are not expected until at least the end of March. Spring meetings will be held the week of April 20, when the board will not analyze individual country cases.

Financing

Despite recent market volatility, it seems clear that a new deal with the IMF will be reached, and that it will provide significant financing.

Argentina can expect at least the $13 billion program originally agreed upon by former president Mauricio Macri. Another way to estimate the deal’s scope is to consider that the current government paid $15 billion in foreign debt due to an inability to refinance maturities. In total, the assistance is estimated to be around $20 billion.