On Friday 26, just four days after receiving unprecedented support from the Trump administration through direct assistance from the US Treasury, Javier Milei’s government imposed restrictions on the purchase of dollars.

Argentines who purchase dollars on the official market will be prohibited from participating in the financial dollar market for 90 days, according to Central Bank communication A 8336. 

The move seeks to stop people buying dollars on the official market and then selling them on the financial dollar market at a higher price. This arbitrage could earn 5% in pesos immediately and had no limit. 

The government is aiming to reassure investors that it has enough dollars to meet substantial debt maturities due in 2026. In this context, the arbitrage operation — known in Spanish as a rulo — has depleted valuable Central Bank dollars.

Central Bank director Federico Furiase wrote on X that “the decision aims to prevent forex market distortions” — in other words, the gap between the official dollar and financial dollars, known in Argentina as the brecha.

In Argentina, there are several markets where individuals can purchase dollars aside from the official market. The “MEP dollar” is obtained by purchasing a sovereign bond or stocks in pesos and then selling it for dollars in the Argentine market. The second method is known as the “blue chip swap” or CCL dollar. This involves buying bonds or stocks in pesos in Argentina and then selling them on an international market for dollars.

This decision had an immediate impact. Due to agricultural exports and the exchange restrictions imposed on Friday, the Central Bank’s gross reserves increased by US$1.9 billion, marking the largest daily rise since August 4 and bringing the total to over US$41 billion.

This was primarily due to Treasury purchases totaling US$1.3 billion, Economy Minister Luis Caputo told TN news channel.

The return of the brecha

On Friday, the official dollar at Banco Nación closed at AR$1,350, while the wholesale dollar, which serves as the market benchmark, was priced at AR$1,326. The blue dollar traded at AR$1,440, 8.6% above the official dollar. The MEP ended the week at AR$1,433.53, while the CCL closed at AR$1,472.51, creating an exchange gap of between 6% and 9% with the official rate.

Monday marks the end of significant agricultural export settlements, and the Treasury is expected to repurchase a substantial volume of dollars, enabling it to gather enough funds to cover January maturities.

According to calculations by 1816 consultancy, the agricultural export sector is expected to settle around US$2.7 billion between Monday and Tuesday, for a total estimated flow of US$6.3 billion.

“If the Treasury continues its current pace of purchases — equivalent to 77% of the settled amount — it will conclude this phase with acquisitions nearing US$3.8 billion,” 1816 estimated. This would mean the government had bought only slightly more than half the dollars the agricultural sector settled.

The consultancy emphasized the significance of the Finance Secretariat’s range of instruments offered in the recent tender, which includes dollar-linked bonds to facilitate demand for exchange rate hedging.

With information from Ámbito