The campaign for the 2025 legislative elections in Argentina is set to start on Tuesday, the official starting point of this year’s big electoral contest. With candidates already confirmed, early polls are showing that the alliance between La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and PRO has a sizable lead.

The ruling party and its main ally are ahead in three different polls the Herald has seen. In two national-level surveys, support hovers between 39 and 44%, with Peronism coming in second as the main opposition. In one poll focused on Buenos Aires City, the LLA-PRO ticket leads the senator and deputy race by 20 percentage points.

These are midterm elections, as President Javier Milei’s term lasts until 2027. However, the results could shift the balance of power in Congress, making it easier — or harder — for the government to pass laws.

Argentines will go to the ballot boxes on October 26 to renew half of the lower house and a third of the senate seats. Each province, as well as Buenos Aires City, will have different tickets. All districts will vote for new deputies, while only eight will choose new senators. Major parties and coalitions, such as LLA-PRO and the main Peronist front, Fuerza Patria, will run in most provinces.

Some of the LLA-PRO candidates confirmed to run are Security Minister Patricia Bullrich for Buenos Aires City senator, José Luis Espert for Buenos Aires province deputy, and Defense Minister Luis Petri for Mendoza deputy. Spearheading Fuerza Patria tickets are Jorge Taiana for deputy in BA province, Itai Hagman in BA City, and Mariano Recalde for senator in the Argentine capital.

What is the political scenario? 

According to Management & Fit consultant agency CEO Lara Goyburu, a political scientist who has been studying this election cycle for the past few months, the choice of candidates is evidence of an “odd” scenario where “there are no surprises.”

“LLA is a new force that has been consolidating itself for the past 18 months as the top electoral preference and continues to do so independently of who their candidates are,” Goyburu told the Herald.

At the same time, polls show that all those who have been involved in politics for the past two decades, including Peronists, as well as members of PRO and the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), have a “very negative image.”

What do the polls say?

Management & Fit’s most recent national election survey indicates that, were the elections to take place today, 44% would vote for LLA-PRO, while 28% would do so for Fuerza Patria. While there is a “significant gap” between them, the poll shows the rest of the political fronts don’t reach 10%. 

“This means we have a polarized scenario,” Goyburu said.

If this tendency holds, Goyburu projects LLA to significantly increase its presence in Congress. Rough numbers show the ruling party and PRO getting around 90 lower house deputies, cementing their alliance. LLA currently has 37 deputies, and PRO 35.

Despite not having many deputies of their own, the government has managed to pass most of its provisions in 2024 and 2025 through negotiations. Increasing its number of deputies will likely mean “more governability,” although it will still be short of a majority and thus required to still negotiate.

Other polls don’t show such a wide gap between LLA-PRO and Peronism, but still have the former ahead. For consultant agency Zuban Córdoba, 39% of Argentines would vote for the libertarian front, while 38% would choose Peronism. Their data also projects 8% to vote for Provincias Unidas — a new front created by governors — 3% for left-wing Frente de Izquierda, 5% for other sectors, and 7% still undecided.

A CB Consultora Opinión Pública survey done after candidates were confirmed on Sunday shows that the libertarian senators’ ticket led by Security Minister Bullrich would win with 46% in Buenos Aires City. Peronism would come in second with 20%. For deputies in that district, LLA-PRO would earn 38% of the vote and Fuerza Patria 18%.

The weight could potentially shift after the scandal that broke this week involving bribe accusations against President Milei’s sister and Presidency Secretariat Karina Milei. The mentioned polls were carried out before this made headlines.

Reasons for the support

One question pollsters have been posing is the reasons LLA voters continue to support Milei despite a critical economic situation, frequent political scandals, and the president’s fierce determination to block any attempts from Congress to offer economic relief. 

“This is a society that is betting on something different, something new, that will mark a difference with the past,” Goyburu said, based on the answers they received.

Although most of those surveyed said that they cannot make ends meet, 45% believe that they will be better in a year. 

“There is a strong link between this and the 40% projected vote for the national ruling party.”

These views, the analyst added, are due to the fact that the political sectors from the past 20 years have “failed to offer Argentine society a political and economic alternative that will satisfy them.”