After an election, it’s common for observers to name winners and losers. But what if no one really won?

Sunday’s legislative elections in Buenos Aires City were full of movement, noise, and familiar names in unfamiliar places. Yet when the dust settled, it was a story of exhaustion, fragmentation — and perhaps the start of something new.

The right: loud, divided, and shrinking

President Javier Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), secured 13 seats in the city legislature — a clear improvement from the eight it held previously. Spokesman Manuel Adorni positioned the vote as a test of Milei’s leadership. Voters obliged — but not overwhelmingly. LLA’s share of the vote hovered around 30%, remarkably similar to Milei’s first-round national performance in 2023. The base held. But it didn’t grow.

To the center-right, the once-mighty PRO — Mauricio Macri’s political creation — was handed a devastating result. In the last legislature, PRO governed as part of a larger JxC coalition that controlled 28 seats. In this election, its share dropped to just 10 under the Buenos Aires Primero label. The party’s ideological space has been overtaken by Milei, and it hasn’t found a way to adapt. The question now is whether Milei was right when he quipped, “Macri doesn’t understand certain things,” or whether Macri understands something else entirely — and is dismantling his own creation on purpose.

On the right, even if LLA and PRO join forces, they fall short of the 31 seats required to reach quorum. Add Larreta’s space, and they still only reach 28.

The center: a modest foothold

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s list, Volvamos Buenos Aires, earned about 8% of the vote and five seats. It’s not a breakthrough. But it’s something. Larreta, a former mayor and presidential contender, broke away from PRO and launched a new centrist electoral space. He didn’t yell, instead proposing order, rules, and moderation — a quiet offer in a loud political moment.

His result was modest, but solid — the only new player to enter the legislature with something that looks like stability. In a country that eventually gets tired of swinging from one extreme to another, this could be the beginning of a middle.

Now, Larreta’s challenge is branding. He has long been more institutionalist than ideological, more technocratic than charismatic, and more manager than fighter. In his 2023 presidential run, he adopted a more aggressive tone to differentiate himself from his party. It didn’t suit him. Nor did it resonate with voters.

Back in the legislative branch in a city that just voted with its feet, Larreta now has the opportunity to speak with his naturally composed tone.

Other centrists like the UCR and Coalición Cívica also underperformed, not because they lack ideas, but because they’ve become places of thought without movement. Larreta, if he’s smart, can position himself as a bridge between the thinkers and the doers.

The left: steady but not surging

Es Ahora Buenos Aires, the Peronist coalition led by Leandro Santoro, secured 20 seats — about 27% of the vote. Combined with the two seats from the Frente de Izquierda, the ideological left makes up nearly 37% of the legislature — an uptick from 2023. 

Santoro’s strategy was to reframe Peronism as urban, progressive, and institutional. It worked — up to a point. Peronism didn’t grow dramatically, but it didn’t collapse either. 

This wasn’t a Peronist victory. It was Peronist survival.

And it was made possible by discipline. While the right imploded into multiple lists, Es Ahora Buenos Aires stayed relatively unified. But holding position is not a strategy forever. Eventually, even discipline needs vision.

Historic low in voter turnout

One of the most revealing outcomes wasn’t on the ballot — it was in the silence. With just 53% of eligible voters casting a ballot, Buenos Aires hit a historic low for legislative elections. For a city that typically sees around 77% participation in general contests, the message wasn’t subtle: many voters chose not to choose.

Several provinces that held elections on separate dates from the national vote, including Chaco, Santa Fe, and now CABA, have recorded participation hovering around 50%. But Buenos Aires is a politically engaged, highly educated electorate, and its silence speaks volumes.

What’s left unsaid at the polls may offer clues for what comes next.

This wasn’t just voter fatigue — it was a rejection of the current menu. On one side, anti-system rage that demands destruction. On the other, well-worn brands of politics long disconnected from the everyday experience of urban voters. The middle? Still forming.

That’s where Horacio Rodríguez Larreta’s quiet debut — not in politics, but of his own independent electoral space — matters.

Two layers of loss

This election revealed two layers of political defeat. The first is numeric. PRO lost seats and the coalition that gave them control of the chamber. CC shrank. Milei gained, but not enough. Larreta grew modestly. Only Peronism and the far left remained stable.

The second is narrative. The anti-system rage of LLA looks less powerful when actual legislation is required. PRO’s institutional identity is fractured. Peronism remains internally stable but lacks a renewed project. The only figure who built something new, however small, was Larreta.

There is no winner. But perhaps we’ve heard the first murmurs of a new alignment. In a city long governed by one political brand, where old parties lost strength and new ones failed to expand, the center may have found the first stones of a new foundation.

More importantly, no space can govern alone, even with unlikely alliances. The era of majorities may have been replaced by a legislature where negotiation is not a choice but a survival mechanism. Those who learn to deliberate may grow. Those who refuse may fade.

Perhaps the future begins not with slogans, but with sentences spoken across the aisle.